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Prediction for CME (2025-10-12T14:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-12T14:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41710/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] CME seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 only and likely not seen in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, possibly since it overlaps with a couple of preceding CMEs, including 2025-10-12T14:23Z CME. Its source could be the C9.6 flare in AR 4246 (N22W10) peaking at 2025-10-12T13:50Z and an associated eruption with dimming to the SE of this Active Region, best seen in STEREO A EUV 195 after 2025-10-12T13:30Z, also seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. The CME partially overlaps with the more northern (as seen in STEREO A COR2), 2025-10-12T14:23Z CME, which may be associated with the dimming to the NW of this Active Region after 2025-10-12T13:30Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-16T06:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-10-12T22:36Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 413
Longitude (deg): 6W
Latitude (deg): 24N
Half-angular width (deg): 31

Notes: Low confidence. Only clearly discernible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery.
Space weather advisor: Duty advisor

Lead Time: 71.73 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-10-13T06:16Z

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